$Predict

Important Notice

Predict is a young platform. We do our best to identify and fix bugs and issues, but use at your own risk. Also, always do your own research (DYOR).

Betting and fee distribution are now conducted in $PREDICT.

You may tag @predict_curator to propose new markets. All submissions will go through a review process to ensure markets are properly configured for the Pump ecosystem.

What is Predict?

Predict is the Prediction Launchpad for Pump.fun Ecosystem where users can:

Turn any debate or prediction on X around Pump.fun Projects and ecosystem into a real market. Every day, countless number of projects are launched on Pump.Fun, but there's no way to predict if a project is going to rug, or hit their roadmap, or if Alon makes 10 tweets this week etc etc. We are changing that since we believe the trenches are not going anywhere.
Long or Short on the project you believe in. Currently, other than selling or buying the token of the project on Pump.fun, there's no other way to long or short on the project. You can do that on Predict, and bet on any aspect of a project, and make waves on X.

How Does It Work?

Market Creation

To create a prediction market, simply tag @predict_curator on X under any post. Include a clear binary question (yes/no outcome) and a specific resolution date.

✓ Good example: "Will @alon tweet 10 times this week?"

✗ Bad example: "What's the next album of my favorite singer?"

Once the market is created, the agent will reply to you on X with a direct link to your new market.

Note: Our agent evaluates several factors before generating a market:

Can the market be resolved fairly and definitively by the set date?
Are there already similar markets on the platform?
Has this X post already been turned into a market?

Based on these criteria, the market may or may not be created.

Fee Distribution

Upon resolution of each market, fees are distributed as follows:

50% to Authors — The original creator of the X post that the market is based on
30% to Creators — The user who turned the X post into a prediction market
20% to Platform — Supports development and maintenance of Predict

This model rewards both content creators and market creators, incentivizing quality predictions and active participation.

Work in Progress

As we prepare for mainnet launch, our focus areas include:

Security — Ensuring the platform is robust and safe for real-value transactions
Automated Market Resolution — Refining our AI-driven resolution criteria for accuracy and fairness
AMM Design — Fine-tuning our automated market maker for optimal liquidity and pricing
Launch Prediction Mechanism — We are working on a few different mechanisms to make the market creation and fee distributions more seemless. For now please tag @predict_curator to propose new markets.

We're always open to feature requests and suggestions. Please reach out to us on Telegram or X (@prediction_xbt).